2004/12/31 by John N. Bahcall, Aldo Serenelli, Aldo M. Serenelli · 10 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric Ozone and Climate #Atomic and Subatomic Physics Research #Neutrino Physics Research #astro-ph #hep-ph #nucl-ex #nucl-th
paper · pdf · doi:10.1086/429883
published as Astrophys.J.626:530,2005 · 46 pages; software and data at http://www.sns.ias.edu/~jnb; includes several clarifications and new references requested by referee; accepted ApJ
arxiv created 2005/03/11 · openalex publication_date 2005/06/02 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31
We show that uncertainties in the values of the surface heavy-element abundances of the Sun are the largest source of the theoretical uncertainty in calculating the p - p , pep , 8 B, 13 N, 15 O, and 17 F solar neutrino fluxes. Our results focus attention on the necessity of improving the measurement of heavy-element abundances, while at the same time reducing the estimated uncertainties in the predicted solar neutrino fluxes due to abundance errors. We evaluate for the first time the sensitivity (partial derivative) of each solar neutrino flux with respect to the surface abundance of each element. We then calculate the uncertainties in each neutrino flux using the preferred "conservative" (based on changes of measured values with time) and "optimistic" (current values) estimates for the uncertainties in the element abundances. The total conservative (optimistic) composition uncertainty in the predicted 8 B neutrino flux is 11.6% (5.0%) when sensitivities to individual element abundances are used. The traditional method that lumps all abundances into a single quantity (total heavy element-to-hydrogen ratio, Z / X ) yields a larger uncertainty, 20%. The uncertainties in the carbon, oxygen, neon, silicon, sulphur, and iron abundances all make significant contributions to the uncertainties in calculating solar neutrino fluxes; the uncertainties of different elements are most important for different neutrino fluxes. The uncertainty in the iron abundance is the largest source of the estimated composition uncertainties of the important 7 Be and 8 B solar neutrinos. Carbon is the largest contributor to the uncertainty in the calculation of the p - p , 13 N, and 15 O neutrino fluxes. However, for all neutrino fluxes, several elements contribute comparable amounts to the total composition uncertainty.