2016/01/04 by César Azorín-Molina, Jose‐A. Guijarro, Tim R. McVicar +4 · 2 citations
Environmental Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Wind and Air Flow Studies #Climate variability and models #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
paper · pdf · doi:10.1002/2015jd024485
openalex publication_date 2016/01/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04
Abstract Given the inconsistencies of wind gust trends under the widespread decline in near‐surface wind speed (stilling), our study aimed to assess trends of observed daily peak wind gusts (DPWG) across Spain and Portugal for 1961–2014 by analyzing trends of (i) the frequency (90th percentile) and (ii) the magnitude (wind speed maxima) of DPWG. Wind gust series were homogenized on a daily basis, using MM5‐simulated series as reference, resulting in 80 suitable station‐based data sets. The average DPWG 90th percentile frequency declined by −1.49 d decade −1 ( p < 0.05) annually. This showed marked seasonal differences: decreasing in winter (−0.75 d decade −1 ; p < 0.05) and increasing in summer (+0.18 d decade −1 ; p > 0.10). A negligible trend was calculated for the annual magnitude of DPWG (−0.005 m s −1 decade −1 ; p > 0.10), with distinct seasonality: declining in winter (−0.168 m s −1 decade −1 ; p < 0.10) and increasing in summer (+0.130 m s −1 decade −1 ; p < 0.05). Combined, these results reveal less frequent and declining DPWG during the cold semester (November–April) and more frequent and increasing DPWG during the warm semester (May–October). Large‐scale atmospheric changes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (negative correlations ~−0.4–−0.6; p < 0.05) and the Jenkinson and Collison scheme (positive correlations mainly with Westerly regime: ~+0.5–0.6; p < 0.05) partly account for the decadal fluctuations of both frequency and magnitude of DPWG, particularly in winter. However, the North Atlantic Oscillation index‐DPWG relationships are smaller in spring, summer, and autumn (~−0.1–−0.2; p > 0.10), especially for the frequency, suggesting the role of local‐to‐mesoscale drivers.