2026/07/15 by KILLIAN CLARKE, ANNE MENG, JACK PAINE · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Armed conflict #Authoritarianism #Autocracy #Left-wing politics #Political Conflict and Governance #Populism, Right-Wing Movements #Power (physics) #Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence #Victory
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s0003055426101737
published in American Political Science Review, 1-21 (Cambridge University Press)
openalex publication_date 2026/07/15 · openalex created_date 2026/07/16 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31
Many authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion are exceptionally durable. Yet others collapse quickly after their birth. We argue that the structure of the founding rebellion explains these divergent trajectories by shaping power-sharing dynamics in the new regime and the nature of conflict recurrence. Regimes founded by unified rebellions (single armed group) usually become highly durable autocracies because their members can credibly share power within the same armed organization. By contrast, regimes founded by fractured rebellions (multiple armed groups) often fail quickly because armed rivals must attempt to share power across their organizations, prompting defections and recurrent rebellions. Empirically, we support these arguments by analyzing originally compiled data on every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900 to 2020. Neither alternative rebellion characteristics, like social revolution or leftist ideology, nor country-level factors can explain why rebel regimes follow divergent trajectories.