2017/02/06 by Cyril Grunspan, Ricardo Pérez-Marco · 1 voice
Business, Management and Accounting · Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Mathematics · #Advanced Queuing Theory Analysis #Blockchain Technology Applications and Security #Probability and Risk Models #cs.CR #math.PR
paper · pdf · doi:10.1142/s021902491850053x
arxiv published 2017/02/06 · openalex created_date 2017/03/16 · openalex publication_date 2018/10/15 · arxiv updated 2020/05/06 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We correct the double spend race analysis given in Nakamoto’s foundational Bitcoin article and find the exact closed-form formula for the probability of success of a double spend attack using the regularized incomplete beta function. We give the first proof of its exponential decay on the number of confirmations, often cited in the literature, and find an asymptotic formula. Larger number of confirmations are required compared to those given by Nakamoto. We also compute this probability conditional to the knowledge of the time of the confirmations. This provides a finer risk analysis than the classical one.