2001/12/07 by Drew Shindell, Gavin A. Schmidt, Michael Mann +2 · 11 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Tree-ring climate responses #Climate variability and models #Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
paper · doi:10.1126/science.1064363
openalex publication_date 2001/12/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.