2026/01/09 by Yanbin Xu, Wenjun Zhu, Dhrubajyoti Samanta +1 · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Social Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Climate Change and Health Impacts #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #Climate Change Policy and Economics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4
openalex created_date 2026/01/09 · openalex publication_date 2026/01/09 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29
Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being.