2022/12/16 by Giovanni Strona, Corey J. A. Bradshaw · 1 voice · 1 citation
Environmental Science · #Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
paper · pdf · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abn4345
openalex publication_date 2022/12/16 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Although theory identifies coextinctions as a main driver of biodiversity loss, their role at the planetary scale has yet to be estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020-2100) climate and land-use changes. We predict a 17.6% (± 0.16% SE) average reduction of local vertebrate diversity globally by 2100, with coextinctions increasing the effect of primary extinctions by 184.2% (± 10.9% SE) on average under an intermediate emissions scenario. Communities will lose up to a half of ecological interactions, thus reducing trophic complexity, network connectance, and community resilience. The model reveals that the extreme toll of global change for vertebrate diversity might be of secondary importance compared to the damages to ecological network structure.