Revisiting the initial COVID-19 pandemic projections

2021/03/01 by Adam T. Biggs, Lanny F Littlejohn · 1 voice
Mathematics · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies

paper · pdf · doi:10.1016/s2666-5247(21)00029-x

openalex publication_date 2021/03/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Early projections of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted federal governments to action. One critical report, published on March 16, 2020, received international attention when it predicted 2 200 000 deaths in the USA and 510 000 deaths in the UK without some kind of coordinated pandemic response.1 This information became foundational in decisions to implement physical distancing and adherence to other public health measures because it established the upper boundary for any worst-case scenarios.

Citations

• Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

Discussions

• Even the more conservative estimates made once better data were available are close to 350k ( doi.org/10.1016/S266... in the UK without lockdowns which would have been catastrophic, not to mention th [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]

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