Testing the Predictive Power of b Value for Italian Seismicity

2024/02/01 by C. Godano, Anna Tramelli, Giuseppe Petrillo +1 · 1 voice · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Engineering · #earthquake and tectonic studies #Seismic Performance and Analysis #Seismic Imaging and Inversion Techniques

paper · pdf · doi:10.26443/seismica.v3i1.1084

openalex publication_date 2024/02/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/13

Abstract

A very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution has been thoroughly tested using synthetic seismic catalogues. Subsequently, the method was employed to assess the capability of the b-value in differentiating between foreshocks and aftershocks, confirming previous findings regarding the Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence. However, a blind algorithm reveals that the discriminative ability of the b-value necessitates a meticulous selection of the catalogue, thereby reducing the predictability of large events occurring subsequent to a prior major earthquake.

Citations

• Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes
• A Software Package to Analyze Seismicity: ZMAP

Cited by

• Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability

Discussions

• Godano et al. test a very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution. They document and verify its capability to de [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]