2022/03/28 by Daniel L. Millimet, Christopher F. Parmeter · 1 voice
Mathematics · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Agricultural and Biological Sciences · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #Agricultural risk and resilience
paper · doi:10.1111/rssa.12826
openalex publication_date 2022/03/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, so too has the recognition that cases and deaths have been underreported, perhaps vastly so. Here, we present an econometric strategy to estimate the true number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for 61 and 56 countries, respectively, from 1 January 2020 to 3 November 2020. Specifically, we estimate a 'structural' model based on the SIR epidemiological model extended to incorporate underreporting. The results indicate significant underreporting by magnitudes that align with existing research and conjectures by public health experts. While our approach requires some strong assumptions, these assumptions are very different from the equally strong assumptions required by other approaches addressing underreporting in the assessment of the extent of the pandemic. Thus, we view our approach as a complement to existing methods.