2024/01/01 by Austin Horng‐En Wang, Charles K. S. Wu, Fang-Yu Chen +1 · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Hong Kong and Taiwan Politics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Philippine History and Culture
paper · doi:10.1093/poq/nfae063
openalex publication_date 2024/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/23
Abstract The literature highlights the conflicting trends between rising nationalism and stable preferences for status quo on cross-strait relations in Taiwan. This article provides new insights from the Taiwan National Security Survey (2002–2022, 14 waves, n = 16, 494) to help explain this apparent inconsistency. The surveys employed “conditional preference” items to capture how the cross-strait attitudes of Taiwanese people are shaped. Since 2002, Taiwanese identifiers have increased steadily, while dual identifiers have decreased. Most respondents still prefer the status quo, but there is a gradual rise in support for independence. Hypothetical scenarios reveal that a majority support independence if China will not attack and oppose unification if China and Taiwan differ economically and politically. Furthermore, the percentage supporting independence given China will attack is increasing, while the percentage supporting unification if China and Taiwan are similar has considerably decreased. Conditional preferences are influenced by perceived economic benefits from China and the military strength of China, Taiwan, and the United States.