Diagnosing the Misuse of the Bayes Factor in Applied Research

2024/01/01 by Jorge N. Tendeiro, Henk A. L. Kiers, Rink Hoekstra +2 · 1 voice · 1 citation
Psychology · Social Sciences · #Cultural Differences and Values #Social and Intergroup Psychology #Behavioral Health and Interventions

paper · pdf · doi:10.1177/25152459231213371

openalex publication_date 2024/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

Hypothesis testing is often used for inference in the social sciences. In particular, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and its p value have been ubiquitous in published research for decades. Much more recently, null hypothesis Bayesian testing (NHBT) and its Bayes factor have also started to become more commonplace in applied research. Following preliminary work by Wong and colleagues, we investigated how, and to what extent, researchers misapply the Bayes factor in applied psychological research by means of a literature study. Based on a final sample of 167 articles, our results indicate that, not unlike NHST and the [Formula: see text] value, the use of NHBT and the Bayes factor also shows signs of misconceptions. We consider the root causes of the identified problems and provide suggestions to improve the current state of affairs. This article is aimed to assist researchers in drawing the best inferences possible while using NHBT and the Bayes factor in applied research.

Citations

• A practical solution to the pervasive problems ofp values
• Optional stopping: No problem for Bayesians
• The philosophy of Bayes factors and the quantification of statistical evidence
• Statistical tests, P values, confidence intervals, and power: a guide to misinterpretations
• Bayesian data analysis for newcomers
• The JASP guidelines for conducting and reporting a Bayesian analysis
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• Bayes Factors
• On the Potential Mismatch Between the Function of the Bayes Factor and Researchers’ Expectations

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Discussions

• Using Bayesian statistics does not protect from errors when null hypothesis testing. Unsurprisingly. doi.org/10.1177/2515... [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]