2021/10/08 by Eric Guntermann, Romain Lachat · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Media Influence and Politics #Social Policy and Reform Studies
paper · doi:10.1177/00323217211046329
openalex publication_date 2021/10/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/22
A common explanation for electoral victories is that the winning candidate adopted issue positions that appealed to voters, implying that citizens’ choices are based on policy preferences. However, it is not straightforward to determine the causal direction between citizens’ issue preferences and their party choice. An alternative possibility, strongly supported by prior research, is that voters adopt the positions of the parties they vote for to rationalize their votes. The 2017 French presidential election offers a unique opportunity to address that question, as it saw the victory of a candidate who was not backed by one of the established parties. Using panel data, we show that policy preferences measured prior to Macron’s emergence as a candidate led voters with a particular bundle of preferences to support him. We conclude that policy preferences clearly do matter to vote choice and that this effect is most visible when a new party emerges.