2005/01/01 by M. Nuño, Miriam Nuño, Z. Feng +5 · 1 citation
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Evolution and Genetic Dynamics #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
paper · doi:10.1137/s003613990343882x
crossref issued 2005/01/01 · crossref published 2005/01/01 · crossref published-print 2005/01/01 · openalex publication_date 2005/01/01 · crossref created 2005/04/27 · crossref deposited 2021/07/09 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · crossref indexed 2026/08/02 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/02
The time evolution of the influenza A virus is linked to a nonfixed landscape driven by interactions between hosts and competing influenza strains. Herd-immunity, cross-immunity, and age-structure are among the factors that have been shown to support strain coexistence and/or disease oscillations. In this study, we put two influenza strains under various levels of (interference) competition. We establish that cross-immunity and host isolation lead to periodic epidemic outbreaks (sustained oscillations) in this multistrain system. We compute the isolation reproductive number for each strain (\Rei) independently, as well as for the full system (\Req), and show that when \Req < 1, both strains die out. Subthreshold coexistence driven by cross-immunity is possible even when the isolation reproductive number of one strain is below 1. Conditions that guarantee a winning type or coexistence are established in general. Oscillatory coexistence is established via Hopf bifurcation theory and confirmed via numerical simulations.