2017/12/06 by Alejandro Flores, Paul Whiteley · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Gender Politics and Representation #Social Policy and Reform Studies
paper · doi:10.1093/ereh/hex028
openalex publication_date 2017/12/06 · openalex created_date 2017/12/22 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/26
Policy implementation has important electoral effects, but there is often a problem in determining if policy changes drive electoral behaviour or if the process works in reverse. To address this issue we exploit a unique natural experiment in Britain: the closure of thousands of train stations, known as the Beeching Cuts, on the eve of General Election of 1964. We use several statistical methods to show that policy implementation was unaffected by partisan considerations and therefore it can be regarded as an exogenous intervention. An individual-level model of voting intentions from the first British Election Study conducted in 1963, and an aggregate model of party vote shares in the General Election of 1964 show that the closures significantly changed voting support for the Conservative party. The 1964 election was very competitive and the closures clearly contributed to the defeat of the incumbent government after 13 years of uninterrupted rule.