2026/07/09 by Eugenio Straffelini, Massimiliano Nicola Lippa, Paolo Tarolli · 1 voice
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Chemistry · Environmental Science · #Edible Oils Quality and Analysis #Plant Physiology and Cultivation Studies #Remote Sensing in Agriculture
paper · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae886c
openalex publication_date 2026/07/09 · openalex created_date 2026/07/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25
Abstract Olive cultivation is key to European agriculture and cultural landscapes, yet it is increasingly at risk due to climate change. Despite existing research on climate impacts on olive trees, it remains unclear how future climate conditions will alter the frequency of agroclimatic threshold events associated with major olive stressors across Europe. In this research, we translated daily downscaled CMIP6 multi-model data into four threshold-based agroclimatic indicators for European olive groves. These indicators were calculated for a historical period (1984–2014) and two future periods (near-term future, 2020–2050; long-term future, 2070–2100) under a ‘stress-test’ scenario (SSP5-8.5): hot dry days (HDD), frost days (FTD), chill days (CHD), and warm humid days (WHD; a climatic suitability proxy for the olive fruit fly). Results show a strong increase in HDD (from an average of 9.6 d in the historical period to 24.6 and 70.5 d in the near- and long-term future, respectively), indicating increasing exposure to hot and rain-free conditions during summer. FTD decreases together with CHD, indicating warmer dormancy conditions and emerging chilling limitations. WHD generally decreases with spatially heterogeneous trends, indicating lower climatic suitability for the olive fruit fly, though it is not a direct measure of pest pressure. Overall, European olive groves face a complex pattern of agroclimatic exposure that varies across countries. This mapping provides a reproducible, pan-European screening to identify areas where adaptation assessments may be prioritized.