2015/03/27 by David M. Pigott, Nick Golding, Adrian Mylne +6 · 3 citations
Medicine · #Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research #Viral Infections and Vectors #Zoonotic diseases and public health
paper · doi:10.1093/trstmh/trv024
crossref issued 2015/03/27 · crossref published 2015/03/27 · crossref published-online 2015/03/27 · openalex publication_date 2015/03/27 · crossref created 2015/03/29 · crossref published-print 2015/06/01 · crossref deposited 2019/08/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01 · crossref indexed 2026/08/01
Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa. Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact. These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.