2025/07/03 by R.Y. Yang, Scott N. Lieske · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Decision Sciences · #Land Use and Ecosystem Services #Climate change impacts on agriculture #demographic modeling and climate adaptation
paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/00049182.2025.2551932
openalex publication_date 2025/07/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/15
Climate change poses significant challenges to ecosystem service provision in Queensland, Australia. Understanding the spatial distribution of climate change vulnerability is essential for identifying high-risk areas and developing targeted adaptation strategies. This study employs Geographic Information System techniques to develop a scenario-based model of Climate Change Vulnerability Index for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystem service provision in Queensland. The model incorporates three indices based on a total of six sub-factors: the Exposure Index (mean surface temperature and precipitation), the Sensitivity Index (population density, building density, and proximity to forests and nature reserves), and the Adaptive Capacity Index (night-time light intensity). Results reveal that the southeastern coastal region exhibits the lowest vulnerability, whereas other coastal and western inland areas display elevated CCVI, signifying heightened risk to regional ecosystem service provision capacity. Comparative analyses reveal that classifying forests and nature reserves as highly sensitive markedly increases regional vulnerability. These findings underscore the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to strengthen ecosystem resilience under climate change and safeguard essential services. This research validates an adapted CCVI methodology for assessing vulnerability at the human–ecosystem interface, providing a replicable framework for other regions.Abbreviations: ARIES: Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services; CCVI: Climate Change Vulnerability Index; GIS: Geographic Information System; InVEST: Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs; IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; LSTM: Long Short-Term Memory; MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; SoLVES: Social Values for Ecosystem Services.