2026/01/19 by Carlos Daniel Santos · 1 voice
Business, Management and Accounting · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Customer churn and segmentation #Firm Innovation and Growth
paper · doi:10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103258
openalex publication_date 2026/01/19 · openalex created_date 2026/01/20 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/14
We document that the kurtosis of firm growth rates increases with firm size, indicating that even the largest firms are susceptible to significant, concentrated risks. To account for these cross-sectional characteristics, we develop a model where aggregate fluctuations are driven by customer concentration. We show that shocks are amplified only when large firms also have highly concentrated customer bases. This mechanism accounts for two stylized facts: the higher volatility of small firms and the heavier-tailed growth distributions of large firms. Customer concentration limits diversification and increases tail risks. Our findings suggest that understanding macroeconomic risk requires considering not just firm size, but also the concentration of their sales.