2026/06/25 by Andrea Caragliu, Roberto Dellisanti · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Economic and Technological Innovation #Regional Development and Policy #Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis
paper · doi:10.1016/j.rspp.2026.100328
openalex publication_date 2026/06/25 · openalex created_date 2026/06/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/16
The current geopolitical landscape is highly fragmented and complex. It is characterized by rising tensions, shifting alliances, and by a largely uncertain global governance. This turbulence has dire consequences, especially at territorial level: it may contribute to widening interregional disparities. Prior ex ante assessments of the way these instabilities may find a solution suggest that a scenario with the EU deepening its internal integration, coupled with tighter global economic linkages ( Integration scenario ), would yield stronger economic performance, associated with smaller increases in cross-country disparities. By contrast, a scenario with looser internal integration within the EU, coupled with a fragmented global economy ( Fragmentation scenario ), would bring about comparatively larger within-country disparities, as slower economic expansion would keep internal inequality more contained. In this paper we propose a set of simulations aiming at disentangle the role played by pre-market, in-market, and post-market factors in driving regional inequalities. Simulations are based on the fifth generation of the MAcroeconometric Social Sectoral Territorial (MASST5) model. Our results suggest a mosaic of often contradictory effects. Should either state of the world depicted in the two scenarios prevail, our simulation results provide a detailed picture of the mechanisms driving overall results, thereby informing policy interventions aiming at minimizing the negative effects of specific development patterns.