Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?

2025/09/01 by Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph J. Sabia, Daniel M. Anderson · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Psychology · #Gun Ownership and Violence Research #Suicide and Self-Harm Studies #Crime Patterns and Interventions

paper · doi:10.1002/pam.70045

openalex publication_date 2025/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/21

Abstract

Abstract Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately‐owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm‐related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm‐related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.

Citations

• How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?
• A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference
• State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks
• Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing
• The social costs of gun ownership
• Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects
• Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program

Discussions

• Early view from JPAM: "Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?" by Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph Sabia, & Mark Anderson. doi.org/10.1002/pam.... [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]