2024/09/01 by Maya Ben‐Yami, Peter Good, Laura Jackson +5 · 1 voice · 2 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Hydrology and Drought Analysis #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · doi:10.1029/2023ef003959
openalex publication_date 2024/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/03
Abstract A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these impacts in experiments that apply the same freshwater hosing to four state‐of‐the‐art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed to previous results, we find that the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation change are remarkably consistent across models. We focus on the South American Monsoon (SAM), the West African Monsoon (WAM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Models consistently suggest substantial disruptions for WAM, ISM, and EASM with shorter wet and longer dry seasons (−29.07%, −18.76%, and −3.78% ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). Models also agree on changes for the SAM, suggesting rainfall increases overall, in contrast to previous studies. These are more pronounced in the southern Amazon (+43.79%), accompanied by decreasing dry‐season length. Consistently across models, our results suggest a robust and major rearranging of all tropical monsoon systems in response to an AMOC collapse.