Thresholds of catastrophe in the Earth system

2017/09/01 by Daniel H. Rothman · 1 voice · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Geology and Paleoclimatology Research #earthquake and tectonic studies #Geological and Geophysical Studies

paper · pdf · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1700906

openalex publication_date 2017/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

The history of the Earth system is a story of change. Some changes are gradual and benign, but others, especially those associated with catastrophic mass extinction, are relatively abrupt and destructive. What sets one group apart from the other? Here, I hypothesize that perturbations of Earth's carbon cycle lead to mass extinction if they exceed either a critical rate at long time scales or a critical size at short time scales. By analyzing 31 carbon isotopic events during the past 542 million years, I identify the critical rate with a limit imposed by mass conservation. Identification of the crossover time scale separating fast from slow events then yields the critical size. The modern critical size for the marine carbon cycle is roughly similar to the mass of carbon that human activities will likely have added to the oceans by the year 2100.

Citations

• The representative concentration pathways: an overview
• Deglacial whole-ocean δ13C change estimated from 480 benthic foraminiferal records
• A Vendian–Cambrian boundary succession from the northwestern margin of the Siberian Platform: stratigraphy, palaeontology, chemostratigraphy and correlation
• The early Toarcian (Jurassic) anoxic event; stratigraphic, sedimentary and geochemical evidence
• Global perturbation of the carbon cycle at the onset of the Miocene Climatic Optimum

Cited by

• A high-resolution summary of Cambrian to Early Triassic marine invertebrate biodiversity

Discussions

• There's a difference between non-extinction (some individuals of some genera or families surviving), and abundance. Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Bran [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]