Beyond the mean: how thinking about the distribution of public opinions reduces politicians’ perceptual errors

2026/02/02 by Nicholas Dias, J. M. Lucas, Lior Sheffer · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Physics and Astronomy · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Social and Intergroup Psychology #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence

paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/psrm.2025.10069

openalex publication_date 2026/02/02 · openalex created_date 2026/02/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/09

Abstract

Abstract Elected politicians regularly over-estimate the conservatism of their constituents’ preferences. While these findings have concerning implications for democratic representation, the magnitude and sources of so-called “conservative over-estimation” are poorly understood. We show that a novel approach to measuring politicians’ perceptions—which asks politicians to draw the distribution of their constituents’ preferences, rather than provide a point estimate—clarifies the magnitude and causes of conservative over-estimation. While the vast majority of politicians exhibit a conservative bias, our “perceived-distribution” task cuts the size of this bias in half. Moreover, psychological projection counterbalances conservative over-estimation among left-wing politicians but reinforces it among right-wing politicians. Our results raise questions about existing accounts of elite misperceptions and help to identify the psychological causes of conservative over-estimation.

Citations

• On the Rationale of Group Decision-making
• An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy
• Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries
• Projection in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion
• Do Politicians Outside the United States Also Think Voters Are More Conservative than They Really Are?
• The Role of Preference Formation and Perception in Unequal Representation. Combined Evidence From Elite Interviews and Focus Groups in Germany
• Why governments want to learn about citizens' preferences. Explaining the representational logic behind government polling

Discussions

• Fourth caveat: the way you elicit MPs ' judgements affects the size of the error doi.org/10.1017/psrm... [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]

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