The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment

2026/04/20 by Dario Caldara, Mike McHenry, Matteo Iacoviello +1 · 1 voice · 1 citation
Environmental Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #Economic Sanctions and International Relations

paper · doi:10.1111/sjpe.70063

openalex publication_date 2026/04/20 · openalex created_date 2026/04/21 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/19

Abstract

ABSTRACT We study the investment effects of the Russia–Ukraine war using a novel, text‐based measure of firm‐level exposure derived from earnings call transcripts. Combining this measure with financial statement data for over 6500 firms across 50 countries, we show that exposure to the conflict led to sizable and persistent declines in corporate investment. Firms that discussed the war in early 2022 invested significantly less than otherwise similar firms. The results hold across multiple empirical strategies and highlight the role of geopolitical risk in shaping firm behavior during global crises.

Citations

• Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
• Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects*
• Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program
• Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects
• Measuring Geopolitical Risk
• What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

Cited by

• SJPE “Economic Policy During and After War” Special Issue Introduction

Discussions

• Early View 📢 @scoteconsociety.bsky.social "The Effects of the War on Ukraine on Global Corporate Investment" Caldara, McHenry, Iacoviello, and Schott Uses a novel text-based measure to show firms [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]

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