2026/07/01 by Muhammad Arif Nasution, Rika Astuti, Rudi Hermi +1 · 1 voice
Environmental Science · #Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies #Marine and fisheries research #Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
paper · doi:10.1111/maec.70109
openalex publication_date 2026/07/01 · openalex created_date 2026/07/04 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/04
ABSTRACT Understanding the environmental factors associated with reef‐associated fish habitat suitability is important for conservation planning in tropical archipelagic systems, where temperature, nutrient dynamics, productivity, and water quality interact across space and time. This study examined temporal changes in predicted habitat suitability for reef‐associated fish across Indonesian waters from 2000 to 2023. Occurrence records were spatially thinned and modeled using MaxEnt with target‐group background selection to reduce sampling bias. Model calibration was performed by comparing regularization multiplier values, and RM = 2 was selected for the final models. Four six‐year periods were analyzed using satellite‐derived oceanographic predictors representing thermal conditions, nutrients, productivity, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and suspended particulate matter. Model performance was consistently good, with mean test AUC values ranging from 0.841 to 0.900. Nutrient‐related and water‐quality variables were the most influential predictors of relative habitat suitability. Suspended particulate matter was the strongest contributor in T1, whereas dissolved iron dominated during T2–T4, followed by phosphate. Temperature variables contributed less than nutrient‐related predictors, suggesting that reef‐associated fish suitability in Indonesian waters is strongly associated with regional biogeochemical and water‐quality gradients. Predicted suitable area showed a non‐linear temporal pattern, declining from T1 to T2 before increasing in T3 and T4. However, these patterns should be interpreted as changes in relative environmental suitability, not direct evidence of population recovery or ecosystem resilience. These findings highlight the importance of integrating water‐quality management, watershed control, reef monitoring, and field validation when using broad‐scale habitat suitability models to inform reef fish conservation in Indonesian waters.