2026/07/06 by Rafael Alfena Zago · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Psychology · #Crime Patterns and Interventions #Sports Analytics and Performance #Gambling Behavior and Treatments
paper · pdf · doi:10.31389/eco.557
openalex publication_date 2026/07/06 · openalex created_date 2026/07/07 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/08
This paper studies how professional soccer matches affect criminal activity in a high-crime developing context. Using high-frequency administrative crime data from the state of São Paulo between 2022 and 2024, I exploit the predetermined timing of match kick-offs to estimate short-run crime dynamics using a discontinuity-in-time (Regression Discontinuity-style) design in event time combined with a flexible event-study framework. All crime categories (violence against women, traffic offenses, property crime, violence, and weapon-related cases) intensify in the hours leading up to matches, reflecting anticipatory behavior, and decline sharply once matches end, consistent with rapid reallocations of attention and routine activities. These dynamics are remarkably consistent across clubs and across host and non-host cities, indicating that the results are not driven by localized stadium effects but by general behavioral responses to soccer matches. A randomized timing placebo supports the causal interpretation. In addition, while late-afternoon and evening matches are followed by immediate declines, matches starting before 5 p.m. are followed by increases in crime before an eventual decrease. The findings highlight the importance of timing-specific public-safety interventions and caution against policies based on average effects. JEL Classification Codes: K42; Z28; O17