2026/07/19 by Bekir Kabasakal · 1 voice
Environmental Science · #Aquatic Ecosystems and Biodiversity #Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies #Species Distribution and Climate Change
paper · pdf · doi:10.3390/ani16142238
openalex publication_date 2026/07/19 · openalex created_date 2026/07/20 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31
Climate-driven range shifts are redistributing biodiversity, yet the niche dynamics of Afrotropical and Saharo-Arabian species expanding into the Palearctic remain poorly quantified. The Namaqua Dove (Oena capensis), an arid-zone columbid at the Palearctic margin, was used to assess current and future climatic suitability in Türkiye and to compare its colonised and native niches. An ensemble niche model was fitted from occurrence and climate data, evaluated by cross-validation, and projected to 2070 and 2100 under three emission scenarios and five climate models. Suitability was predicted chiefly by precipitation, with low winter temperature as a secondary constraint, and roughly 92,000 km2 is already climatically suitable. In environmental space, the colonised records formed a contained, cool-margin subset of the native niche, indicating partial filling rather than expansion into novel climate. Low niche overlap, non-significant similarity tests, and a failed native-model transfer indicate a non-equilibrium, still-establishing front rather than full niche conservatism. The suitable area increased under every scenario and shifted predominantly eastward, with a north-eastward component, rather than poleward. The eastward pattern reflects the geometry of the suitable climate across Anatolia rather than an intrinsic directional preference. Because most of the projected climate has no present-day analogue, the direction of change is better supported than its magnitude, though both are conditioned by this extrapolation. The projected magnitude is reported as scenario illustration rather than forecast. These results indicate that suitability for O. capensis in Türkiye is shaped jointly by precipitation and winter temperature, with colonisation tracking suitable climate rather than shifting into novel conditions.