Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences

1994/02/04 by Наоми Орескес, Kristin Shrader‐Frechette, Kenneth Belitz · 1 voice · 12 citations
Decision Sciences · Arts and Humanities · Environmental Science · #Scientific Computing and Data Management #Philosophy and History of Science #Science and Climate Studies

paper · doi:10.1126/science.263.5147.641

openalex publication_date 1994/02/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.

Citations

• Studies in the Logic of Explanation
• Representing and Intervening
• The Logic of Scientific Discovery
• Conjectures and Refutations

Cited by

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• A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing
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• Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change
• Quantifying soil erosion by water in the UK: a review of monitoring and modelling approaches
• A Subjective Bayesian Framework for Synthesizing Deep Uncertainties in Climate Risk Management
• Investing in open and FAIR practices for more usable and equitable climate-risk research
• Onset of plate tectonics by the Eoarchean
• Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models
• Identifying key parameters for cover crop C sequestration across process-based models
• Does a large number of parameters enhance model performance? Comparative assessment of common catchment model structures on 429 catchments
• Temperature

Discussions

• very interesting, thanks! I'm must admit I am a little uneasy, though, with the language of "confirmation" in the context of model-based research, as that's a very loaded term: doi.org/10.1126/scie... [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]

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