Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model

2023/11/13 by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski +1 · 1 voice · 3 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Environmental Impact and Sustainability #Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy

paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/jiec.13442

openalex publication_date 2023/11/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

Abstract After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban‐industrial land development time.

Citations

• Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities
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Discussions

• the 2023 update to the 1972 report "The Limits of Growth" paints a disconcerting picture that resources are probably peaking right about now and that a population collapse is likely to follow doi.org/ [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]

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