2019/03/13 by Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Jonas Hedegaard Hansen, Kasper Møller Hansen +1 · 1 voice · 1 citation
Social Sciences · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Social and Intergroup Psychology #Survey Methodology and Nonresponse
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/pan.2019.9
openalex publication_date 2019/03/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/03
Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents’ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women’s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes’ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.