Statistics did not prove that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the early epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic

2024/01/16 by Dietrich Stoyan, Sung Nok Chiu · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies

paper · doi:10.1093/jrsssa/qnad139

openalex publication_date 2024/01/16 · openalex created_date 2024/01/17 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29

Abstract

Abstract In a recent prominent study, Worobey et al. (2022. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science, 377(6609), 951–959) purported to demonstrate statistically that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the epicentre of the early COVID-19 epidemic. We show that this statistical conclusion is invalid on two grounds: (a) The assumption that a centroid of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is unproved. (b) A Monte Carlo test used to conclude that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is flawed. Hence, the question of the origin of the pandemic has not been answered by their statistical analysis.

Citations

• The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic

Discussions

• Oddly, it cites no new evidence. For some recent papers on the topic, see doi.org/10.1093/jrss... doi.org/10.1093/jrss... and for less formal summaries: npatterson.substack.com/p/yet-more-o... michae [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]

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