Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases

2023/07/11 by Pratyush K. Kollepara, Rebecca H. Chisholm, Joel C. Miller · 1 voice · 1 citation
Medicine · #Mosquito-borne diseases and control #Viral Infections and Vectors #Zoonotic diseases and public health

paper · pdf · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227

openalex publication_date 2023/07/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25

Abstract

Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease.

Citations

• Los Congresos de la Federación Regional de Sindicatos de Peñarroya durante la Dictadura de Primo de Rivera
• On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
• The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models

Cited by

• Disentangling social, environmental, and zoonotic transmission pathways of a gastrointestinal protozoan (Blastocystis spp.) in northeast Madagascar

Discussions

• Increasing evidence for multimodal transmission of mpox! Our work showed that sexual + nonsexual transmission led to underestimation of attack rate even when nonsexual transmission is initially minima [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]

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