Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?

2024/01/01 by Stefan Rahmstorf · 4 voices · 7 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes #Marine and coastal ecosystems #Geology and Paleoclimatology Research

paper · pdf · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2024.501

openalex publication_date 2024/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/16

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major impact on climate, not just in the northern Atlantic but globally. Paleoclimatic data show it has been unstable in the past, leading to some of the most dramatic and abrupt climate shifts known. These instabilities are due to two different types of tipping points, one linked to amplifying feedbacks in the large-scale salt transport and the other in the convective mixing that drives the flow. These tipping points present a major risk of abrupt ocean circulation and climate shifts as we push our planet further out of the stable Holocene climate into uncharted waters.

Cited by

• Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• The role of coupling and timescales for interacting tipping elements
• The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior
• Impact of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapse on Carbon‐13 Components in the Ocean
• North Atlantic ventilation change over the past three decades is potentially driven by climate change
• Physics‐Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change
• Multidecadal Atlantic “Warming Hole” Heat Content Variations Are Caused by Ocean Heat Transport, Not by Surface Fluxes

Discussions

• The cold blob is the signature of weakening overturning circulation. doi.org/10.5670/ocea... [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
• Yes, and hope so. Or see my article: doi.org/10.5670/ocea... [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
• I keep going down rabbit holes searching for more peeps to follow so can’t remember who posted this link so I’m posting rather than re-sharing #AMOC doi.org/10.5670/ocea... [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
• Thank you for your feedback. How would you have phrased the headline? Would you mind posting a link to your paper? Apart from that I was wondering whether your findings are still compatible with Stef [bsky, 0 points, 2 comments]

Related

• Past, present and future of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
• Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• Why the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation may not collapse
• Tipping points in overturning circulation mediated by ocean mixing and the configuration and magnitude of the hydrological cycle: A simple model