2025/08/19 by Yue Xiao, Chuanyi Guo · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Historical Economic and Social Studies
paper · doi:10.1080/09672567.2025.2548558
openalex publication_date 2025/08/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/15
According to the World Bank, China’s population was 1.41 billion as of 2023, accounting for 18% of the world’s population. Without the demographic insights developed by Chinese economists, this number could have been substantially higher. While Malthus formulated his population theory in the context of industrial Britain, China experienced rapid demographic expansion prior to modernisation. Lacking industrial development to absorb surplus labour and constrained by a low-productivity agrarian economy, Chinese economists confronted overpopulation as a structural burden. The population was bound by institutions, such as the Confucian norms and various forms of controlled economy, that hindered the transition to more productive sectors. Scholars in the late Qing Dynasty proposed deliberate population control measures, echoing Malthus’s theory of preventive checks. In the twentieth century, a new generation of Chinese economists—trained at leading universities and well-versed in Malthusian thought—formed a Chinese school of population planning. Their research identifies gender equality and universal education as critical levers for addressing demographic pressures. Over time, their recommendations laid the foundation for a state-led population strategy that contributed to a dramatic slowing of China’s population growth. This progress eased resource constraints, raised per capita investment in education and human capital, and created space for broader structural transformation.