2016/06/14 by Frank Kalter, Gisela Will · 3 citations
Mathematics · Psychology · Social Sciences · #Affect (linguistics) #Confounding #Demographic economics #Econometrics #Economics #Estimation #Geography #German #Interpersonal ties #Law #Mathematics #Migration and Labor Dynamics #Migration, Refugees, and Integration #Political science #Psychology #Social Capital and Networks #Social capital #Social psychology #Statistics
paper · doi:10.1177/0002716216643506
published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 666(1), 46-63 (SAGE Publishing)
openalex publication_date 2016/06/14 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/26
In this article we use a combination of retrospective and prospective data from the Polish Migration Project to examine the effect of social capital on the likelihood of migrating to Germany. We derive hypotheses from social capital theory about how personal connections to people with migratory experience affect the probability of migration, and we specify models to be estimated using both the retrospective and prospective data. Estimates of retrospective event history models confirm prior findings about social capital’s influence on migration decisions, and these findings are also generally confirmed using prospective data, even when potentially confounding variables are controlled. The prospective data also enable estimation of a two-stage decision model in which people first come to consider migration as an option and then rationally consider whether to depart. The estimates suggest that weak social ties are especially influential in predicting whether migration is considered, while strong ties are important in the decision to move.