2023/11/30 by Takuma Watari, André Cabrera Serrenho, Lukas Gast +2 · 1 voice · 1 citation
Environmental Science · Energy · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Environmental Impact and Sustainability #Global Energy and Sustainability Research #Climate Change Policy and Economics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43684-3
openalex publication_date 2023/11/30 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29
transport and storage, renewable electricity, and green hydrogen. However, the deployment of this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58-65% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22-56% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.