2026/01/29 by Mohamed Htitich, Jaromír Harmáček, Petra Krylová · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Energy · #Sustainability and Climate Change Governance #Global Energy and Sustainability Research #Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
paper · doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100421
openalex publication_date 2026/01/29 · openalex created_date 2026/01/30 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25
Improvements in societal well-being are associated with varying levels of environmental impact across countries, posing a major challenge for global sustainability. As climate and development agendas converge, there is growing urgency to understand how countries can advance social progress while minimizing environmental harm. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that a just transition—defined as the shift toward low-carbon societies in which no one is left behind—requires convergence in countries’ ability to decouple social progress from carbon emissions. We introduce the Carbon Efficiency of Social Progress (CESP), a composite indicator constructed as the ratio of per capita carbon footprint to the Social Progress Index (SPI), and analyze its dynamics across 160 countries from 1990 to 2020. Using time-varying factor models based on the Phillips and Sul methodology, we assess whether countries converge in their CESP performance globally and within emission-based subgroups. Our results reveal distinct patterns. Low-emitting countries (below 1.9 tCO₂e per capita) exhibit signs of rapid convergence ( β = 0.50; SE = 0.047). High-emitting countries (above 10 tCO₂e per capita) also converge, though at a much slower rate ( β = 0.13; SE = 0.179). By contrast, middle-emitting countries (1.9–10 tCO₂e per capita) exhibit significant divergence ( β = − 0.58; SE = 0.120). These findings indicate that while low-emitting nations follow relatively promising paths, middle- and high-emitting countries face structural barriers that hinder progress toward just transition. Our study contributes to the literature on sustainability convergence and offers insights into how countries can align social development with climate goals under the global just transition framework.