2025/09/01 by Ershi Hua, Minpeng Chen, Siqi Li +1 · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · #Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Environmental Impact and Sustainability
paper · doi:10.26599/ecm.2025.9400018
openalex publication_date 2025/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11
The formulation of quantitative national and subnational mitigation targets for China's agricultural sector has been limited by the lack of comprehensive, long-term assessments of mitigation potential. This study developed the Agricultural non-CO2 Greenhouse gAs InveNtory (AGAIN) model to estimate emission trajectories and evaluate the mitigation potential of China’s agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the provincial level through 2060 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), current policy (CP), conventional technical potential (CTP), and maximum technical potential (MTP). Results indicated that under the BAU scenario, agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions were projected to continue rising, reaching 1,124 Mt CO2eq by 2060. In contrast, under the CP scenario, emissions were expected to peak in 2050 and decline by 12% by 2060. Substantially greater mitigation was achieved under the CTP and MTP scenarios, in which emissions peaked before 2030, resulting in a 27%–47% reduction by 2060. At the provincial level, 16 provincial-level regions did not reach peak agricultural emissions before 2030 under the CP scenario, while only the MTP scenario ensured that all provincial-level regions met this target. These findings underscore the need for more ambitious mitigation efforts to align the agricultural sector with China’s dual-carbon goals. Notably, the consistent identification of priority regions and subsectors for mitigation across all scenarios highlights both the feasibility and the strategic value of developing region-specific agricultural mitigation policies.