2026/06/22 by Mariusz Baranowski, Piotr Jabkowski, Daniel M. Kammen · 1 voice
Energy · Engineering · #Extraction and Separation Processes #Global Energy Security and Policy #Global Energy and Sustainability Research
paper · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105984
openalex publication_date 2026/06/22 · openalex created_date 2026/06/23 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
This article presents a structural critique of the 2025 U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, situating it within the broader context of rare earth element supply chains and the ongoing energy transition. Utilizing the Adaptive Resource Geopolitics framework, we explore the emergence of bilateral mineral agreements in contexts of strategic vulnerability and investigate their potential to mitigate U.S. reliance on China's dominance in the processing and downstream manufacturing of rare earth elements. Our analysis draws on policy documents, academic literature, and institutional reports to argue that the agreement should be understood as a compensatory adaptation rather than an effective diversification strategy. We demonstrate that the agreement guarantees nominal access to Ukrainian mineral deposits. However, the Reconstruction Investment Fund fails to address three substantial constraints: the uncertainty and verification issues associated with geological knowledge, the impact of active warfare on the feasibility of investment and extraction, and the lack of allied midstream and downstream processing capacity. These constraints make it unlikely that Ukrainian deposits will serve as a credible near-term alternative to Chinese-controlled supply. We conclude that the agreement possesses geopolitical value. However, it does not result in a substantial alteration of the structural imbalance that governs rare-earth dependence. Ensuring durable supply security necessitates a coordinated investment in geological verification, post-conflict governance, and the establishment of non-Chinese processing and manufacturing infrastructure.