2026/04/30 by Mengdi Fu, Yuanyuan Zhang, Jinqi Zhao +1 · 1 voice
Environmental Science · #Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation
paper · doi:10.1111/csp2.70269
openalex publication_date 2026/04/30 · openalex created_date 2026/05/05 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
Abstract Habitat fragmentation and climate change threaten species persistence, yet few approaches integrate species‐specific constraints, climate‐driven dynamics, and network robustness in a unified framework. We propose a transferable climate–habitat–network robustness (CHNR) framework combining multi‐scenario ensemble modeling, habitat transformation analysis, and graph‐theoretic connectivity metrics. Milu ( Elaphurus davidianus ) habitats were projected under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 for four periods (2021–2100), followed by cumulative resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path analyses. Structural resilience, functional redundancy, and climate consistency indicators were quantified. SSP2‐4.5 retained 82.8% of baseline habitats, avoiding a 2040–2060 fragmentation window; SSP5‐8.5 lost up to 33.9% and increased migration cost. Both scenarios showed scarce (<150 km) core corridors and low redundancy. Climate‐resilient cores and priority bottlenecks were identified for targeted management. CHNR effectively links climate projections with connectivity planning, offering a replicable tool for identifying resilient habitats, ranking corridor priorities, and guiding adaptive conservation for climate‐sensitive species.