2026/05/24 by Ross Hendy, Zarina Vakhitova · 1 voice
Health Professions · Social Sciences · #Gun Ownership and Violence Research #Occupational Health and Performance #Policing Practices and Perceptions
paper · doi:10.1177/10986111261446549
openalex publication_date 2026/05/24 · openalex created_date 2026/05/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/26
This study investigates officer-involved shootings (OIS) in Australia between 1970 and 2020, focusing on the effects of routine firearm carriage policies introduced in New South Wales (1991) and Victoria (1993). Owing to the lack of uniform national reporting of non-fatal shootings, a two-phase data collection strategy was adopted: initial identification through online media archives, followed by validation using gray literature and official reports. This process resulted in a dataset of 581 OIS incidents, including fatal and non-fatal cases. Using this dataset, we employed Bayesian structural time series modeling, and a segmented regression analysis within an Interrupted Time Series analysis to assess the impact of routine carriage policies. Both methods consistently showed that routine carriage policies did not increase OIS rates. These findings provide empirical evidence countering assumptions that increased firearm availability among police necessarily leads to higher OIS rates. The results suggest that under certain conditions, routine firearm carriage can be introduced without exacerbating OIS rates. While identifying the mechanism was outside the scope of this paper, the pattern is consistent with the view that organizational, tactical, and cultural settings, and not firearm availability alone, shape OIS outcomes. Jurisdictions considering the routine arming of police officers should treat it as a multi-component policy change, and pair any changes to firearm policy with context-specific tactical training, professionalization initiatives, and de-escalation protocols. Careful attention to these factors may mitigate risks associated with routine carriage and promote safer outcomes for both officers and the public.