2026/05/31 by Maksym Nechepurenko
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Computer Science · #q-fin.TR #cs.CY #q-fin.CP #msc:91G15 #msc:62H30 #msc:91B26 #acm:91G15 #acm:62H30 #acm:91B26
9 pages, 2 propositions, 2 tables. Major pre-publication correction: the archived sample is a 2.285-day legacy-CTF-only block range, not a seven-day venue sample. The revision makes record-level two-sided attribution and mint/burn direction limits explicit and narrows clustering and concentration claims. No new empirical run
arxiv created 2026/07/30 · arxiv updated 2026/07/31
This paper studies behavioral concentration in Polymarket's public executed-fill record and formalizes what that record can and cannot identify. A pre-publication reconciliation corrects the empirical scope: the archived extraction covers the legacy CTF Exchange over Polygon blocks 86,008,447-86,107,178, approximately 25 April 2026 17:09 UTC through 28 April 2026 00:00 UTC, rather than the full 21-27 April week stated previously. It contains 13,356,931 OrderFilled records, 77,204 addresses with at least five attributed records, and 43,116 token identifiers; negative-risk markets are absent. The archived feature construction credits both maker and taker addresses on each record. This convention is not invariant to match fragmentation, and mint/burn executions do not admit a universal buyer/seller interpretation. The reported one-cluster result is therefore retained only as a null under the original record-level representation, not as evidence that the participant population is intrinsically unimodal. The concentration table is likewise attribution-weighted arithmetic under that convention. Two methodological results remain durable: public fills do not identify the quote lifecycle required to infer market making, spoofing, or strategic withdrawal; and a one-cluster result rejects density separation in an observed feature space, not latent economic heterogeneity. A match-normalized, mint-aware, multi-window replication is required before treating the cluster null or exact cohort shares as stable venue properties.