2026/05/22 by Muhammad Aqib Idrees, Xiaoyi Dong, Dong Xiaoyi +3
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Environmental Science · #Forest Insect Ecology and Management #Insect-Plant Interactions and Control #Species Distribution and Climate Change
paper · doi:10.1017/s0007485326101060
crossref issued 2026/05/22 · crossref published 2026/05/22 · crossref published-online 2026/05/22 · openalex publication_date 2026/05/22 · crossref created 2026/05/22 · crossref deposited 2026/05/22 · openalex created_date 2026/05/23 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/23 · crossref indexed 2026/07/30
Abstract Pochazia shantungensis (Chou & Lu, 1977) is a polyphagous planthopper first identified in China. This species has now spread rapidly across East Asia and Europe, resulting in significant economic losses in agricultural and forestry production in many countries. In order to illustrate the intrinsic connection between climate change and the geographical expansion of this pest, the optimised MaxEnt species distribution model was used to analyse the potential distribution areas of P. shantungensis under current and future climate scenarios (2041–2100), using CMIP-6 projections (SSP126 and SSP585). MaxEnt modelling indicates that the area suitable for P. shantungensis will likely expand by 8–18% by 2100 under the SSP126 scenario (48,100 × 10⁴ km 2 ) but contract under the SSP585 scenario (47,600 × 10⁴ km 2 ) compared to the current suitable habitat area (43,900 × 10⁴ km 2 ). Therefore, the range expansion of this species is predicted to extend from Asia to temperate regions globally, excluding Antarctica. This study provides baseline data for pest surveillance, early warning systems, quarantine, and management strategies in high-risk areas.