2026/01/01 by Barry J. Cooke, GABRIEL LEMAY · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Agricultural and Biological Sciences · #Fire effects on ecosystems #Forest Insect Ecology and Management #Insect Pheromone Research and Control
paper · pdf · doi:10.4039/tce.2026.10058
openalex publication_date 2026/01/01 · openalex created_date 2026/07/08 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/09
Abstract Long-term light-trap records provide a rare opportunity to examine spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) population behaviour at the southern edge of the species’ range. We analysed statewide moth counts from Maine, United States of America (1961–2024), to characterise temporal patterns and assess their relevance for outbreak risk. The time series showed a saw-toothed rise from 1961 to its peak in 1978, followed by a precipitous collapse across the state after 1982, and an extended quiescent period in 1990–2012, punctuated finally by abrupt but moderate increases in adult abundance, with no evidence of a smooth oscillation. Recruitment dynamics were nonlinear, with multiple equilibrium points, which is consistent with a metastable process. These dynamics limit the utility of classical forecasting approaches and complicate expectations about outbreak development following the recent pulse in moth numbers after nearly two decades of low activity.