Projected loss of brown macroalgae and seagrasses with global environmental change

2024/06/24 by Federica Manca, Lisandro Benedetti‐Cecchi, Corey J. A. Bradshaw +7 · 1 voice · 4 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies #Marine Biology and Ecology Research #Marine and coastal plant biology

paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48273-6

openalex publication_date 2024/06/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

Although many studies predict extensive future biodiversity loss and redistribution in the terrestrial realm, future changes in marine biodiversity remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we model global shifts in one of the most important marine functional groups-ecosystem-structuring macrophytes-and predict substantial end-of-century change. By modelling the future distribution of 207 brown macroalgae and seagrass species at high temporal and spatial resolution under different climate-change projections, we estimate that by 2100, local macrophyte diversity will decline by 3-4% on average, with 17 to 22% of localities losing at least 10% of their macrophyte species. The current range of macrophytes will be eroded by 5-6%, and highly suitable macrophyte habitat will be substantially reduced globally (78-96%). Global macrophyte habitat will shift among marine regions, with a high potential for expansion in polar regions.

Citations

• Global seagrass distribution and diversity: A bioregional model
• Marine Ecoregions of the World: A Bioregionalization of Coastal and Shelf Areas
• A Global Crisis for Seagrass Ecosystems
• Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections
• Long‐term declines and recovery of meadow area across the world’s seagrass bioregions
• Deep-water kelp refugia as potential hotspots of tropical marine diversity and productivity

Cited by

• Projections of intertidal estuarine seagrass distribution under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian network approach
• Evolutionary legacies structure the geography of seagrass traits across the world's oceans
• A horizon scan of biological conservation issues for 2026
• Benthic assemblage responses to different sources of macrophyte detritus using contrasting methodological approaches

Discussions

• Our new paper in @NatureComms led by @Cassiopaea1: Projected loss of brown #macroalgae and #seagrasses with global environmental change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48273-6 @cmgustafsson @ano [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]

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