Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?

1994/01/01 by Daron Acemoğlu, Andrew Scott · 1 voice · 1 citation
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies #Financial Markets and Investment Strategies

paper · doi:10.2307/2234671

openalex publication_date 1994/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23

Abstract

Using UK data the REPIH is rejected due to the predictive content of consumer confidence, and not labour income or any other macroeconomic variable. We provide evidence suggesting that this cannot be explained by liquidity constraints and account for this finding in terms of precautionary saving. Extending the CCAPM model to allow a time varying conditional variance we find a high level of confidence is associated with greater optimism about the level of consumption but also a higher forecast variance. Allowing for time aggregation, the overidentifying restrictions implied by this model are accepted. We estimate a small but statistically significant intertemporal elasticity of substitution.

Cited by

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Discussions

• Acemoglu in The Economic Journal #3/8 "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?" doi.org/10.2307/2234... [bsky, 2 points, 1 comments]

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