2024/11/29 by Emma MacKie, Joanna Millstein, Katherine A. Serafin · 2 voices
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Medicine · #Cryospheric studies and observations #Winter Sports Injuries and Performance #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2024gl112235
openalex publication_date 2024/11/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/22
Abstract Massive calving events result in significant instantaneous ice loss from Antarctica. The rarity and stochastic nature of these extreme events makes it difficult to understand their physical drivers, temporal trends, and future likelihood. To address this challenge, we turn to extreme value theory to investigate past trends in annual maxima iceberg area and assess the likelihood of high‐magnitude calving events. We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change. Nevertheless, it is statistically possible for Antarctica to experience a calving event up to several times greater than any in the observational record.