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Navigating uncertainty in cyber conflict: incorporating false flags in the attribution process of offensive cyber operations

2025/12/25 by Gil Baram, Herb Lin · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Engineering · #Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare Studies #European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies #Military Strategy and Technology

paper · doi:10.1080/1369118x.2025.2604662

openalex publication_date 2025/12/25 · openalex created_date 2025/12/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/14

Abstract

This paper examines false flag operations in cyberspace and their implications for attribution. While these operations are key to understanding cyber conflict, they are mostly understudied outside technical research. We place deception and attribution challenges within the broader context of offensive cyber operations and international security, illustrating how manipulating identity and intent complicates forensic analysis and political decision-making. The paper defines false flag cyber operations, assesses their strategic importance, and connects them to broader discussions of uncertainty, risk, and decision-making. The 2018 Olympic Destroyer incident is used as a case study to illustrate how attackers intentionally added misleading signals to hide their responsibility and influence attribution. This example highlights the risks of misjudgment when early assessments are misled by deception. Beyond the technical sphere, the study situates false flag operations within the dynamics of renewed great-power competition, showing how deliberate misattribution can undermine crisis stability and heighten escalation risks among rival states.

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