2026/03/05 by Bernd von Mallinckrodt · 1 voice
paper · doi:10.5281/zenodo.18873144
openalex publication_date 2026/03/05 · openalex created_date 2026/03/06 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
This research note introduces the Mallinckrodt Cycle and the Compression–Resonance–Tension Index (CRTI) as a conceptual framework for diagnosing endogenous fragility in complex adaptive systems. While traditional risk analysis often associates systemic collapse with disorder or external shocks, this work proposes a counter-intuitive hypothesis: many complex systems fail due to structural over-order—a state in which optimization and efficiency compress internal variance and suppress feedback mechanisms. The Mallinckrodt Cycle describes a typical trajectory in which systems move from exploration and adaptive diversity toward increasing efficiency and structural compression. Beyond a critical threshold, this optimization process leads to singularization, where the system becomes incapable of absorbing environmental complexity. In this state, minor perturbations can trigger disproportionate systemic responses. To analyze this process, the paper proposes the Compression–Resonance–Tension Index (CRTI) as a diagnostic lens. The framework interprets systemic fragility as an interaction between structural compression (C), adaptive resonance with the environment (R), and accumulated internal tension (T). Rather than providing a definitive predictive model, CRTI is presented as an exploratory meta-diagnostic tool that synthesizes signals observed across multiple domains. Empirical illustrations from network theory, financial systems, resilience research, and the sociology of science demonstrate how known phenomena—such as cascade failures, volatility clustering, efficiency–resilience trade-offs, and delayed scientific recognition—can be interpreted as signals of increasing structural over-order. The paper argues that maintaining variance, modularity, and strategic redundancy is essential for sustaining adaptive capacity in complex systems. Keywords (für Zenodo) complex systems complex adaptive systems systemic risk cybernetics resilience network theory self-organized criticality edge of chaos structural fragility system dynamics organizational resilience Mallinckrodt Cycle CRTI structural compression